Global Natural Rubber Market Remains Resilient Despite Weather Challenges
The global natural rubber market continued to demonstrate resilience in June 2026, supported by tightening supply conditions and steady demand from the tyre industry, according to the latest Natural Rubber Statistical Monthly Report published by the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) and summarized by the China Rubber Industry Association (CRIA).
While geopolitical developments caused crude oil prices to fall sharply during the month, adverse weather linked to the ongoing El Niño phenomenon continued to affect rubber production across several key producing countries, providing strong support for natural rubber prices.
Rubber Prices Remain Strong
Most major grades of natural rubber recorded price increases during June. Although prices eased slightly after reaching monthly highs, they remained at elevated levels throughout the month as supply concerns outweighed broader market uncertainties.
The report notes that supply disruptions caused by high temperatures, irregular rainfall and seasonal tapping interruptions continued to tighten market availability, supporting global price levels.
China Leads Import Growth
On the trade side, China remained the strongest-performing major importer of natural rubber.
Compared with May:
China's imports increased by 7.14%
India's imports declined by 11.38%
Vietnam recorded a 4.65% decrease
Malaysia's imports remained largely unchanged
Export performance varied significantly among producing countries:
Cambodia posted the strongest growth with exports rising 32.29%
Vietnam increased exports by 20.99%
Indonesia recorded growth of 2.04%
Thailand's exports declined by 2.97%
The figures underline shifting trade flows as producing countries adapt to changing global demand.
Global Production Expected to Reach 15.31 Million Tonnes
ANRPC forecasts global natural rubber production to reach 15.31 million tonnes in 2026, representing an increase of 2.3% compared with 14.97 million tonnes in 2025.
The largest production gains are expected from:
Thailand
China
India
Malaysia
Meanwhile, Indonesia and Vietnam are expected to record slight production declines.
Despite the positive annual outlook, June production totaled 1.207 million tonnes, down 3.7% year-on-year due to seasonal harvesting interruptions combined with the impact of El Niño-related weather conditions.
Several producing countries have also introduced new measures to strengthen their domestic rubber industries, including investment incentives in Malaysia, export management policies in Indonesia and Cambodia, and additional industry support initiatives.
Consumption Continues to Grow
Global natural rubber consumption is forecast to increase by 0.7% in 2026 to 15.411 million tonnes.
China remains the world's largest consumer, driven by robust tyre production, continued electric vehicle manufacturing and improving industrial activity.
June consumption reached 1.300 million tonnes, an increase of 3.3% compared with the previous year.
China consumed 602,500 tonnes during the month, while India's consumption reached 114,000 tonnes.
The report attributes demand growth to stable tyre production, expanding electric vehicle manufacturing and improving manufacturing activity, reflected in June Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) readings of 50.3 in China and 54.2 in India. India's automotive retail market also achieved record sales during the month.
Futures Markets Reflect Tight Supply
Natural rubber futures remained relatively firm during June.
Average prices were:
Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) September contract: 17,580.68 yuan per tonne, down 0.45% month-on-month.
Singapore Exchange (SGX) September contract: US$2.24 per kilogram, up 1.75% month-on-month.
According to ANRPC, futures markets continue to reflect tightening supply conditions while downstream demand from tyre manufacturers remains stable.
Outlook
Although global production is expected to increase during 2026, weather-related supply risks continue to pose challenges for producing countries. At the same time, resilient demand from the global tyre industry—particularly in China and India—is expected to support natural rubber prices over the coming months.
Source: China Rubber Industry Association (CRIA), based on the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) Natural Rubber Statistical Monthly Report – June 2026, published on 31 July 2026.